John E. Chapman Chief Executive OfficerFor decades, the ultra-wealthy kept their watches, wine, and exotic cars in separate mental buckets: one for enjoyment, one for status, one for the occasional flex at a dinner party. That distinction is quietly dissolving. What was once called a “hobby portfolio” now has performance data, index tracking, and institutional interest behind it. The numbers, in many cases, are hard to ignore.
The Scorecard: A Decade of Returns
The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index (KFLII), which tracks a weighted basket of ten collectible asset classes, has delivered a 72.6% increase over the past decade and 21.4% over five years. After drops of 2.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2023, the index slipped just 0.4% in 2025, reading more like a market finding its footing than one in distress. Breaking it down by category tells an even more interesting story.
Luxury Watches
Watches have been the standout consistent performer, delivering an extraordinary 125.1% increase over the past decade. The 2025 data shows the category continuing to recover. The Rolex Market Index rose 4.6% in 2025, with nearly all models posting solid performances, while the Patek Philippe Market Index outpaced Rolex, climbing 12.1% over the same period. The Aquanaut 5167A has been Patek’s star performer, remaining one of the hardest to source due to overwhelming demand.
The real story is understanding which references are generating value. Rolex sports models, particularly the Daytona, Submariner, and GMT-Master II in steel, have held the most consistent secondary market premiums. Patek’s Nautilus and Aquanaut remain the most coveted references in the room. Among independents, F.P. Journe and A. Lange and Sohne continue to command serious collector attention and strong auction results.
My favorite way to track a watch collection is through Chrono24, the global watch marketplace that doubles as one of the most powerful real-time valuation tools available. With live listings across virtually every reference, you can see exactly what your specific pieces are actually trading for at any given moment, not just estimated values. That kind of visibility gives collectors a genuine edge in knowing when to buy, hold, or move a piece, and it turns what used to be an opaque, dealer-driven market into something far more transparent.
The most culturally interesting recent development in the watch world has been the AP x Swatch “Royal Pop” collaboration, released in May 2026. For context, the watch brand Swatch has made a habit in recent years of partnering with prestigious Swiss watch brands to produce limited-edition, accessibly-priced (plastic) pieces that carry the design DNA of iconic luxury references. The most famous prior example was the MoonSwatch in 2022, a collaboration with Omega that sent crowds around the block and created a secondary market frenzy almost overnight. The Royal Pop follows the same playbook, but with a more consequential partner: Audemars Piguet, one of the so-called “Holy Trinity” of pinnacle Swiss watchmaking alongside Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin. Rather than a traditional wristwatch, the Royal Pop reimagined AP’s iconic Royal Oak as a series of bio ceramic pocket watches available on a lanyard, blending pop-art color with one of horology’s most recognizable designs. The release itself was chaotic, including the Oakbrook, IL, store. Swatch closed boutiques and canceled the launch after crowds swarmed stores around the world, including the UK, France, and Singapore locations, prompting safety concerns. Once the product reached the market, prices on Chrono24 ranged from around $1,200 to almost $6,000 for pieces that retailed at $400. Whether the Royal Pop holds those premiums long-term is an open question, but the frenzy itself tells you something important: watch collecting culture has never had more mainstream energy behind it, and that broader interest is a rising tide for the serious end of the market.
Exotic and Classic Cars
Vintage cars experienced a 185% increase in value over the past decade, according to Knight Frank’s Wealth Report, second only to rare whiskies and outpacing wine, watches, and art. The near-term picture is more nuanced. Classic car values fell 3.7% in 2025, though halo models remained in fierce demand, with major US and European auctions achieving notable results. The bifurcation is the story: extraordinary cars attract extraordinary prices, while the middle of the market drifts.
Two Lamborghini models illustrate exactly what “halo” appreciation looks like in practice.
The Aventador SVJ has become one of the clearest examples of a modern supercar that has held its value remarkably well. With only 900 coupes and 800 roadsters produced before production ended in 2020, and an original sticker price in the $550,000 range, the SVJ has proven to be an exceptional story of “capital preservation.” The highest recorded sale reached $3,560,000 for a 2020 LP770-4 SVJ in March 2025, with the average SVJ now trading at just under $930,000. For a car that originally left the showroom at $550,000, the numbers speak for themselves.
The manual Murcielago LP640 is an even more striking case study. There are only 88 units of the LP640 six-speed coupe built worldwide, making it one of the rarest modern Lamborghinis ever produced. The reason collectors are fighting over them comes down to finality: the Aventador that replaced the Murcielago never offered a manual gearbox, and both the Huracan and the new Revuelto are offered exclusively with paddle-shift transmission, making the Murcielago the last chance to own a naturally aspirated Lamborghini V12 with a gated six-speed. The market has priced that distinction accordingly. Manual transmission examples have decoupled entirely from their E-Gear counterparts, forming their own micro-market with exponential value appreciation as collectors have realized what they are actually buying. A manual LP640 Roadster in good condition is now valued by Hagerty at around $1.3 million, with mint examples approaching $2.5 million, compared to an original base MSRP of $416,300 in 2010.
Fine Wine
Fine wine has averaged around 10% annually over the long term, but it is navigating a difficult correction. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index posted a decline of 2.5% in 2025, with total losses at almost 25% since the 2022 peak. Not all regions are suffering equally. Tuscan wines have continued to prove resilient through the downturn, with many top Tuscan wines boasting quality scores on par with Bordeaux and Burgundy vintages, yet trading at around half the price, making them one of the more compelling entry points in the current environment.
Rare Whisky
Rare whisky has been the decade’s headline performer on paper, but the correction has been severe. Over the past decade, rare whisky delivered a staggering 280% return, making it one of the best-performing alternative investments. The hangover has been equally dramatic, with whisky declining 10.9% in 2025 and continuing its post-boom correction following exceptional pandemic-era growth. The core issue is structural: the market attracted purely speculative capital that drove prices far beyond what collector demand alone could sustain. Patience and selectivity are now the only viable strategy.
Fine Art, and the NFT Cautionary Tale
Fine art remains the most volatile category and the most bifurcated. Impressionist art surged 13.6% in 2025, driven by major single-owner sales including Gustav Klimt’s Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer, which achieved $236.4 million, the highest price ever paid for a modern artwork at auction. At the same time, contemporary art dropped 6.0% for a fourth consecutive year. Art rewards deep expertise and punishes generalist investing more than any other category in this space.
Speaking of expertise and the lack thereof: NFTs deserve a brief moment of acknowledgment, if only as the most efficient destruction of wealth the art world has ever produced. What was marketed at the peak of the pandemic frenzy as a revolutionary new asset class has, for virtually all participants, turned out to be a speculative bubble of historic proportions. Over 95% of NFT collections are now inactive, with floor prices for marquee projects like Bored Apes and CryptoPunks plunging 80 to 90%, translating into billions in unrealized losses. The celebrity endorsements made it worse. Justin Bieber purchased a Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT for approximately $1.3 million in January 2022. That same NFT is now valued at roughly $12,000, a decline of more than 99%. The lesson is not that digital assets are inherently worthless. It is provenance, scarcity, and tangibility that are not optional features in a durable store of value. Remember, if you have a hard time explaining how or why something could be so valuable, maybe take a pause.
What the Numbers Don’t Tell You
Performance data is seductive, but passion assets carry structural risks that don’t show up in an index.
Liquidity is never guaranteed. Unlike a stock, you cannot exit a classic car or a case of Burgundy in seconds. The exit process through auctions, dealer networks, and private sales is opaque, takes time, and extracts meaningful fees.
Provenance is everything. In a podcast episode I recorded a while back, we talked a lot about the concept of Provenance and its importance to this asset class. Unique models tied to historical events or celebrity ownership tend to generate the highest premiums due to their rarity and backstory. The mid-tier collection, a nice but not extraordinary watch or a competent but not famous vintage, often disappoints investors who bought on category hype rather than individual merit.
The speculative cycle is real. Every category above saw a pandemic-era surge followed by a correction. Investors who have a genuine passion for their collection are less likely to get swept up in speculative hype and less likely to panic-sell at the bottom. The best downside protection in this space may simply be owning something you would be happy to keep.
The Portfolio Case
For HNW individuals and family offices, the appeal of passion assets is not just return potential. It is a correlation. These assets largely move independently of public markets. During equity drawdowns, a Patek Philippe or a cask of Macallan does not automatically follow the S&P lower. The KFLII’s strongest returns are measured over decades, not months, making these inherently long-duration holdings that can reward patience over trading.
The emerging best practice among sophisticated family offices is to treat passion assets the same way they would treat any alternative allocation: with a defined sizing, active valuation tracking, proper insurance coverage, and a documented exit framework. The garage, the cellar, and the safe should have a line item on the balance sheet, not just a place in the heart.
Sources:
- Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index / Wealth Report 2026 — knightfrank.com
- 2025 Luxury Investment Index — relevance.digital
- Luxury Investment Market Stabilises as Collectors Pivot to Rarity — thinkglobalpeople.com
- Best Collectibles to Invest in 2025: Watches, Art, Cars and Fine Wine — boatinternational.com
- The Rise of Vintage Cars as Lucrative Assets — altoo.io
- Top 10 Luxury Collectible Assets — myartbroker.com
- Collectibles Prove to Be a Solid Asset Class for Investors — kiplinger.com
- The Whisky Market in 2024: A Year of Challenges and Opportunities — 12×75.com
- The Last Manual V12 Roadster: Lamborghini Murcielago LP640 — carbuzz.com
- Lamborghini Murcielago Price: What to Pay? — collectingcars.com
- Swatch and Audemars Piguet’s High-Low Collab: Who’s the Real Winner? — cnn.com
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